The Djenne Initiative, Inc.

An analysis of the Talo Dam project and its foreseeable consequences on rural production systems in Djenneri

By Françis Gallier ⁽⁵⁾

(Reprinted from: The Djenné Heritage Information Number 13, July 2002
Translation by the Djenné Initiative, Inc.)

(CLICK HERE for French Version)

The Talo Dam construction project on the Bani, upriver from the Niger Delta, is quite contested. In its current phase, this project, -initiated in the early 1980s- ⁽⁶⁾, calls for the settlement of 20.316 hectares, 10.030 for rice production, with controlled submersion enabled by the Dam. The Dam would allow the water levels to rise to a height of 274.35 meters on the site of a lateral threshold. In its dry decennial condition ⁽⁷⁾, the effect would be to raise the water level more than 6 meters in Talo and 2.84 in Douna (80 kilometers upriver from the Dam). At this height, the reservoir would have a volume of 175 million of cubic meters and a surface of 29 million m2. (Agrer 1997).

The adoption of this project ignited the discontentment of...the local populations, especially those located downstream from the new arrangement, namely those populations who will...have to suffer the consequences of the hydrological transformations. The concerns are strongest beyond San and all the way to Mopti; the Djenne inhabitants, in particular, managed to stir up public opinion ⁽⁸⁾. Thus, the Djenné inhabitants' association in Bamako expressed its concerns in a letter addressed to the President of the Republic of Mali, titled: "The Djenné arguments regarding the Talo Dam", dated October 28, 1998.

The main concerns [as to the impact of the Dam] are linked to:

- Reduction in the water levels during the flood period and consequently the loss of floodplains;

- The belatedness of the flood;

- Reduction in quality of the waters and their sediment content;

- The social and economical repercussions, for which -in the end- the economical interest is seriously put to test.

Nevertheless, both the opponents and the supporters of the Dam seem to lack complete and reliable studies. In particular, as for the impacts on the downstream areas, one has to deplore a lack of coherent, consistent and accurate projections that would allow for more constructive discussions, as well as more critical ones, so that decisions can be made in full knowledge of the issue... There is a real lack of information that I tried to fill in, within the limits of the means I had at my disposal for my DEA internship. Two main objectives were devised:

- To situate the project in its context and, through a critical analysis of the existing documents, reach an arguable opinion about the quality of the project preparation.

- To attempt to predict, through the use of various existing information and by deploying a map projection of the foreseeable transformations of a flooded zone chosen as an example, the hydrological impacts of the Talo Dam and its repercussions on the [traditional] downstream production systems.

Context and critical analysis

The presentation of the geographical context, climactic but also conceptual, seems indispensable to the correct grasp of the problem. The impacts will be felt in the flood zones of the interior Niger Delta, more to the south. The riches, but also the vulnerabilities, of those deltaic regions have already been revealed. The variability and unpredictability of the rains and floods determine the abundance and allocation of the natural resources, and thus, the life conditions of the populations, who for the main part have remained rural and agrarian. This explains how much the farmers (rice growers), herders and fishermen depend on the good quality of the floods from the adjacent Niger and Bani rivers; they are particularly sensitive to, and worried by, this Dam which presents a threat to them.

Situation Map of the Talo Dam on the Bani for the irrigation of the plains

These concerns are legitimate in regard to the international sphere. In fact, in an international context, the politics of dam building are more and more criticized. Civil societies, scientists and experts question their economical profitability and relevance by demonstrating the negative impacts they carry. Their capacity to generate a sustainable development is, in the end, quite debatable. And so, it seems indispensable for this Dam project to take all necessary precautions and to insure that the negative impacts will not outweigh the expected advantages.

In the specific case of the Talo Dam, the reflection on its interests and its dangers should integrate the complex problems of the delta system development; the diversity of the areas; the variability of the resources and the difficulties that result from the coexistence of rice-growers, herders and fishermen. Do the preparatory studies address those issues?

The critical analysis of the preparatory documents ⁽⁹⁾ revealed very important failings:

The hydrological transformations caused by the Dam [were] not considered significant and so the downstream impacts are judged as negligible. In this manner therefore, the extent of the studies conducted is rather inadequate; the influences of the project on the Niger Delta have been systematically ignored. The needed effort to anticipate the hydrological transformations for the downstream zone and their repercussions on the areas and production systems upon which the local societies and economies depend has not been exerted --with no visible explanation.
The failure to consult, expressed by the citizens, has been recognized by the Mission of the National Direction for the Control of Pollutions and Nuisances. (DNACPN 2001).
The failure to consider certain negative impacts linked, on the other hand, to an ever optimistic vision of the hoped-for results forces us to question the conclusion...that this project would bring an economic and social success and begs for a real cost/benefit analysis.
The fact that only the financing of the first phase of the work has been secured, and the risk that the rest of the settlement work (in a second phase) may never be financed (or may be but only after considerable delays), clearly threatens the success of the program. In effect, short of the second phase, the investments would be made profitable by the newly settled areas of the first phase, namely, 7,850 hectares in controlled submersion, of which only 4,750 are allocated for rice ⁽¹¹⁾.
More generally, a sound analysis is lacking for this project: there is no reference to the known dangers of dams, to the recent evolution of the climactic context, to the concepts of "sustainable development," to experiences acquired on the development of the Niger Delta, and to the drawbacks of hydro-agricultural settlements....

Consequently, further studies based on the projection of hydrological transformations appear quite necessary. They would correct the main gaps and foster a better debate, a better decision-making process favoring an economical and social development respectful of the environment. These additional studies would demand the collection of new basic information (topographical, hydrological, and land-related).

Nevertheless, we have tried here to foresee what would be the hydrological transformations and their consequences, within the limits of our means and competences.

Prediction of the hydrological transformations of the affected areas

By using hydrological data specific to the elaboration of the project ⁽¹²⁾ and linking them to the knowledge we have of the Bani River hydrology ⁽¹³⁾, we were able to predict the main hydrological transformations that the project will cause. Here are the essential results:

The hydrological losses caused by the Dam (more than 90 million cubic meters per decade in September, as per Agrer 1997, will induce a decline proportionate to the available volumes downstream.
There will be a drop in the water levels downstream. As per the rating curve * in Bénéni-Kégny, a reduction of 20 to 45 cm is predictable in flood conditions, whether good or bad, (like those of 1994 and 1993, which represent those situations in our work.)
The phase of filling up of the retaining lake (during which the water level reaches downstream only though a floodgate construction limited to 10m3/sec.) will delay the flood arrival for 10 to 20 days.
At the moment when the Dam fills up, the water flows over it, and the flood arrival will be more brutal. A daily increase of 5 to 7 cm can be feared with a peak of 10cm daily at the beginning of the arrival of the "new waters".
The drop in water level, on the other hand, won't be delayed, and so the duration of the submersion finds itself reduced to 10 to 20 days.
The unavoidable deposit of solid matters (siltation) in the containment area leads to the decline of fertilizing supplies downstream. The increase of erosion phenomena could entrench the river bed, further reducing the maximal heights reached by the floods. The overflow, so expected, so necessary, could be limited.
Finally, the upholding of a low water mark included between 5 to 10 cm/sec. can only concern the inferior bed. It remains to be seen what will remain of this water flow, minus the evaporation and the infiltrations along a few hundred kilometers.

Predicting Hydrological Transformation

By using a Geographical Information System (ArcView), we were able to draw a cartographical simulation of the reduction of the flooded areas that would have resulted from the construction of the Dam under the 1993, 1994, 1995 flood conditions -which are deemed, respectively, bad, good or average floods. To those years we have added a simulation for the 2000 season in order to gather recent and precise recollections from the farmers. As a basis, we had a topographical survey scaled at 1/5000 from a part of the Casier Bougoula obtained from the Mopti Rice Office (ORM) ⁽¹⁴⁾. The equidistance of the level curves is 0.2 meter and allows for a satisfactory precision. We added hydrological data from ORM and from the National Hydraulics Directorship (DNH), from which we subtracted the foreseeable losses and heights due to the Dam. We have thus obtained a series of flood maps for different years, one with the natural situation and one expected with the Talo Dam...

As an example, see the Simulation map of the 1995 flood, excerpted from the dissertation enclosed. The map on the left shows the flood that must have occurred in this part of the Casier Bougoula in 1995 as per the hydrological data collected by ORM at the entrance of the Casier. A certain agricultural potential, according to the height of each billow, is allotted to each space. The map on the right shows the flood that should have occurred in the event the Dam was built, according to the projection of the hydrological transformations. Below, the bar chart shows the evolution of the areas thus concerned by the billows and the associated potentials. Thus, ArcView allows us to estimate the losses that can be deplored in terms of floodable areas and agricultural potential.

Here is the main information that can be obtained with this method regarding the flooded areas at different depths:

- The decrease of the inundated areas from the flooding varies with the considered spaces and years, but it is all the more important when floods are mediocre.

- There are thresholds under which a weak drop of the water level induces a very strong drop in the inundated surfaces. Thus the evolution of the flooded areas is not linear and proportional to the height of the water site.

- If the average drop of the flood level is 30 cm, the decrease of the inundated areas may be 20 to 90% in regard to the current situation (depending on places and years under consideration). For the rest, we retain an average loss of 22%, which corresponds to the weakest results, and therefore, the most optimistic ones. However, even when retaining this weak hypothesis, the areas thus lost would be very important and may in no way be neglected. To give an idea: in an area of 53,060 hectares under the influence of the Bani, more than 12,000 would have been lost, and 10,000 of the 44,000 farmed hectares would have been lost in just the Pondori Plain in the year 2000, (as per data collected with a GPS system by Care Djenné.)

Year 1995 Simulation of the impacts of the Talo Dam on the flooding of the Bougoula Plain

Projection of the repercussions of those hydrological transformations in rural production systems

Agrarian productions in the floodable zones that interest us here constitute a very complex system. Indeed, the coexistence of cultivation, fishing and husbandry activities on a mosaic-like space, following precise seasonal occurrences, depend on diverse factors (like rains and floods), for which links of cause and effect are not linear. One must then adopt a more systematic approach.

Even in natural conditions, the deltaic production systems are very dependent on pluviometric conditions and flood intensity. As a result, the productive activities of the inundable zones are always random, for they depend on variable, unpredictable and natural elements. People attempt to adapt themselves... to such elements, to accommodate the climactic and hydrological rhythms with the biological contingencies of diverse productions. But despite their efforts, they remain largely dependent upon the random character of such hazards.

Indeed, one can always look for the species best adapted to the terrain, use past experiences, diversify activities, move to where resources are more available...but with their present financial and technical means, the rural producers remain powerless in regard to weak rains or a bad flood. In addition, and to further complicate production activities --resources have to be shared, coexistence amongst local people must be insured, which is subject to negotiation of their [indigenous rights to lands and resources], along with a rigorous respect for seasons and natural conditions.

In fact, not only the quality and quantity of the production are random and exposed to numerous risks, but also the "social peace", which depends on the respect for a complex land-owning system that must be adapted and renegotiated in real time depending on the land-owning/land-sharing conditions offered by the different areas.

Therefore, one should be aware of the hydrological transformations that building the Talo Dam ⁽¹⁶⁾ would cause, -increasing the risks that threaten sustainability and testing the already fragile land owning systems. Here is, briefly stated, how the main natural risks would be increased by the Talo Dam:

- Drying up of cultures: the rice seedbeds must be leavened with the rains, but when the rains diminish at the end of wintering, it is important that the floods reach and inundate the young sprouts to allow for maturation. However, the delay of the flood caused by the filling up of the containment forebodes that, in certain circumstances, the sprouts shrivel up or dry up before the flood's arrival.

- If the inundation of the rice paddies doesn't occur in desired quantity and time, the harvest is lost. And with the Talo Dam, the proportion of the paddies that won't receive any water will increase.

- If the flood arrives too strongly (if the water raises more than 3 to 5 cm per day), the rice stalks could be submerged and "drowned." (This term is locally employed, as this is also called a "white flood"). This is also true for other vegetal species. The primary production of certain areas could be affected by the Dam since, according to our research of the hydrological documents, the flood would occur more brutally with rises of 10 cm a day.

- If the inundation of the paddies doesn't last long enough (2 to 4 months according to the different types of rice), the plants risk not reaching maturity and the harvests will be affected, or sometimes completely lost. Now, the Talo Dam delays the arrival of the flood but doesn't delay the drop in level. The flooding of the different areas is unavoidably shorter and the risk will rise significantly (the farmers talk of a premature withdrawal.)

During the low water season, the drying up of the ponds and of the secondary channels -where the herds drink and where the survival of a piscicultural fauna is necessary for the next good fishing season- is always feared. However, with the Talo Dam, a decrease of the ground water levels is to be feared downstream and so is an earlier drying up of the water sources. This hypothesis remains to be verified. In the event that it would, it is clear that the pastoral and halieutic activities would be affected during the low water season.

These risk-augmenting mechanisms bearing on the biological cycles, could induce sensitive, lasting transformations of rural production systems. Here are a few possible trends:

The "high plains" are subject to a shallow submersion (less than 1.5 meters), relatively short and random during bad years. These zones are predominantly dedicated to rice culture and, later in the season, grazed on by the herds at the end of the harvests.

The "low areas" benefit from a more systematic and deeper submersion, even in years of bad floodings. These zones are predominantly dedicated to fishing and husbandry and are used as shelter by animals throughout the dry periods (from January to July).

One can predict that different zones will be differently concerned and affected by the hydrological transformations caused by the Talo Dam.

The "high zones", whose submersion will become more random and with a lesser intensity (height and duration), will become less attractive for the rice culture. Furthermore, their exploitation to develop dry cultures (millet and sorghum) won't be easy, since the land is not favorable to such cultures and submersion would be damaging. Finally, the biomass of the pastures will decrease and so will its workload, to also affect husbandry. These high plains will become less and less productive, inducing an indifference to land ownership and cultivation.

The "low zones" will know other difficulties. The greater brutality from the waters' arrival and the consequent increase of certain species' drowning invite us to consider the hypothesis of a decrease in the biodiversity and the productivity of the aquatic ecosystems. The drop of the average water level and the duration of the inundation indicates a decrease of primary productions. Furthermore, these already weakened zones will have to bear the influx of the rice-growers who will unavoidably move toward these shallower zones to find conditions with sufficient flooding (in height and duration) for rice growing. This move from farmers into the low areas traditionally dedicated to husbandry will shrink the expanse of pastoral spaces. It is feared that the tensions and conflicts between these two types of users will yet likely increase.

Amongst the predictable adaptation forms, the mobility of the production areas and of the local people themselves will no doubt be a major asset. But land-owning law and capacity for mobility won't be identical for everyone. The scope and frequency of the moves won't be the same according to the desired resources and the concerned users. Mobility has been an essential foundation of the deltaic production system for ever, yet it also poses a number of issues, that bring its share of tensions and land-owning conflicts.

Recommendations

The failings we were able to identify in the preparation of the program ... are all the more of concern, given that with such a Dam the upstream floodable zones unavoidably threaten the abundance of resources, and therefore the social and economical life of the valley. The preparation of this project must be reconsidered: studies that demonstrate a real expertise are needed as well as a wider consultation and an effective upgrade to current standards regarding Impact Studies. An objective analysis, along with a critique of the project...will enable us to judge its actual relevance and degree of priority in rural development policies. Two options then become possible: give up the project or pursue it after having brought to it significant improvements.

In the event of the project's continuation, it would be important to reconsider all possible alternatives, such as: more complete technical solutions to allow for a better management of water resources (rational utilization, allocation amongst users); reduction of ecological impacts; and more economical profitability. Particular care should also be given to the conditions related to popular participation and to rural management of the settlements, which are issues often neglected. Finally, land-owning issues, particularly sensitive in the Niger Delta in times of decentralization, must be fully addressed.

Conclusion

The preparation of this Dam project suffers from enormous failings, -for instance, the omission of the hydrological and economical impacts on the downstream area, and of the ill-founded social and economical projections. However, we were able to verify that this Dam will cause important hydrological and hydrographical transformations ... These transformations will have unavoidable consequences on space allocation and abundance of natural resources. Rural production systems will be affected and local populations will have to resist -- rather than adapt to -- new conditions in less generous environments. The indifference for certain spaces (in high plains), for which submersion will become too random for rice-growing, can be predicted. Alternately, deeper zones will be the object of fierce disputes, with the need to renegotiate the traditional users' rights. The risks of land disputes will no doubt increase.

Under these conditions, scientists and technicians must make it their duty to work and supply accurate information, to shape opinions about the dangers that threaten concerned societies, and point to available options. Presently, and in order to do so, we cannot bypass the collecting of hydrographical and topographical data that will allow more elaborate simulations and finer projections than the ones we could produce in this work. One must also consider very closely the modalities of consultation with the local populations, the modalities of the Dam's management and of the settled land areas, and the expected impact on land-ownership.

⁵: Summary of Mr. François Gallier's DEA Geography DEA, held at Orléans IRD Center, September 12 2001. Contact: gallierfc@yahoo.fr
⁶: Initiated at the beginning of the 80s, the Talo Dam was part of a vast development scheme of the Bani, of which the main part was to be the Djenné Dam (Sedes 1984). Since then, the scheme has been abandoned, and inexplicably, the Talo Dam project has been pursued.
⁷: In hydrology, the decenial dry flood designates the weak flood, whose height will rise over nine years out of ten, statistically speaking.
⁸: in particular, the international association Cultural Survival has been engaged against the building of the Dam. The report from the Clark University is very critical of the project, and insists on its risks; it is available at: www.cs.org.
⁹: Refer to the documents from the Agrer office.
¹⁰: In light of the current contestation, the Banque Africaine de Developpement (BAD) has decided to postpone the financing of the project. Everything is on hold for now.
¹¹: The cost of the construction is estimated at USD 27 million for the first phase.
¹²: Agrer, 1997, fig. 26, in particular.
¹³: Limnimetrical readings from national hydrological directorship.
¹⁴: This "Casier" is located at about 20 km south of Djenné, on the right bank of the Bani river. Work on a larger zone could definitely be considered in the zones mapped out by the Mopti Rice Office.
¹⁵: According to a response address to the Cultural Survival NGO 2001, Middle Bani Plains Improvement Program, and using data from SEDES 1984.
¹⁶: However, one must consider a number of factors related to the complex, unpredictable inter-relationships and we limit here the presentation of the dynamics and systems to the seemingly probable ones; any atttempt to quantify them would be, for now, illusory and questionable.
¹⁷: IIMI: National Institute for Irrigation Management.
* Translator's Note: rating curve: curve showing the relation between stage and discharge of a stream at a hydrometric station. If digitized, it is a rating table.

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